The 48 Hour Rule: Practice the Change Curve with AI | Oak & Reeds

Oak & Reeds Interactive Training

The 48 Hour Rule

Three prompts that walk you through the Change Curve on a change you're actually facing, and help you tell the difference between a real objection and stage one denial.

This is the exercise we run in the Adapting to Change workshop, rebuilt so you can do it on your own with an AI assistant as your coach. Paste each prompt into ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or whatever you use. Fill in the orange sections with your own situation. Work through them in order.

It takes about fifteen minutes. Do it on a change you're currently sitting on rather than a hypothetical one, or the whole thing stays theoretical.

Before you start

The Change Curve is adapted from Elisabeth Kubler-Ross's work on grief. Six stages, and people move through them at wildly different speeds. Keep this list open while you work through the prompts.

  • 1Shock and DenialHoping it won't happen. Carrying on with normal behavior and normal work. "My role isn't affected." "That's someone else's problem."
  • 2Anger and FrustrationBlame, volume, resentment. Often aimed at whoever chose the change.
  • 3Confusion and DepressionLow energy, disorientation, loss of confidence in how to do the job.
  • 4AcceptanceNot thrilled, but engaging. Sometimes through gritted teeth.
  • 5Problem-SolvingEnergy pointed at solutions rather than complaints. Building workarounds and sharing them.
  • 6The New NormalThe change stops being a change. It's just how things work.

The 48 Hour Rule

When a small change lands, don't act on it and don't decide about it. Notice the resistance, then put it down for two days. When you come back, the novelty has worn off and it isn't a new thing anymore. Stage one is mostly about novelty rather than substance, so two days of background processing often drops you straight to stage four.

Step 1: Find out where you actually are

Step 1

Place yourself on the curve

Most people guess too high. This prompt makes you produce evidence for your placement rather than a flattering self-report.

I'm working through an exercise from Oak & Reeds Interactive Training (oakandreeds.com) called Change Curve Mapping. I want you to act as my coach, not as a summarizer. Ask me questions and push back where my reasoning is thin.

Here's the change I'm going through:
[DESCRIBE THE CHANGE. What is it, when did it start, who decided it, what does it ask you to do differently?]

Here's how I've actually behaved since it started:
[BE SPECIFIC AND UNFLATTERING. What have you opened, not opened, said out loud, quietly not done, told yourself you'd get to?]

The Change Curve has six stages:
1. Shock and Denial - hoping it won't happen, carrying on with normal behavior, "my role isn't affected," "that's someone else's problem"
2. Anger and Frustration - blame, volume, resentment
3. Confusion and Depression - low energy, disorientation, loss of confidence
4. Acceptance - not thrilled, but engaging
5. Problem-Solving - energy pointed at solutions, building and sharing workarounds
6. The New Normal - it's just how things work now

Do three things:
1. Tell me which stage my BEHAVIOR puts me in, and quote the specific thing I said that points there. Behavior counts more than how I say I feel.
2. Name any gap between the stage I think I'm in and the stage my behavior suggests.
3. Ask me three questions that would sharpen the diagnosis. Wait for my answers before moving on.

Tip: If the AI puts you at stage four or five on the first pass, tell it to be harsher and re-run it. The most common result in the live workshop is people discovering they're a stage lower than they assumed.

Step 2: Test whether it's denial or a real objection

Step 2

Build three alternative reads

Denial and a legitimate concern feel identical from the inside. This separates them and gives you something more accurate to work from.

Continuing the same exercise. Here's the story I've been telling myself about this change:

[WRITE THE SENTENCE YOU'VE ACTUALLY SAID OR THOUGHT. Examples: "this won't stick," "my role isn't really affected," "I'll deal with it when it's mandatory," "whoever picked this has never done my job."]

Give me three alternative readings of this change. Each one has to be:
- more accurate than my current read
- less emotionally charged
- more useful to me on a Tuesday morning

Then do this second part, which matters more. Tell me honestly which parts of my original read are actual substantive objections worth raising with someone, and which parts are just the novelty of a new thing. Don't be diplomatic about the split. If my objection is real, help me write one clear sentence I could say to my manager or my team about it.

Finally, apply the 48 Hour Rule: name the one decision I should deliberately NOT make for two days, and the specific question I should come back and answer 48 hours from now.

Tip: Put the 48 hour follow-up in your calendar before you close the chat. The rule only works if the return trip actually happens.

Step 3: Practice the conversation

Step 3

Roleplay someone stuck in stage one

The hard part of leading change isn't the model, it's the live conversation. This gives you reps before you have it for real.

Now I want to practice. You're going to roleplay one person on my team who is stuck in Shock and Denial on this same change.

Here's who they are:
[NAME OR ROLE, how long they've been doing the job, and the specific thing they've said or done that made you think they're in denial.]

Rules for the roleplay:
- Stay in character. Be realistic, not cartoonish. People in stage one are usually calm and reasonable-sounding, not hostile. They deflect, they minimize, they carry on as normal.
- Give me ONE line at a time, then stop and wait for my response.
- After each of my responses, break character briefly and tell me two things: what the coaching move I just made would land as, and whether it was matched to their stage.

What I'm practicing is the Oak & Reeds coaching strategy for stages 1 and 2, which is Context and Clarity:
- Answer "what's in it for me" at the individual level, not the company level
- Explain the why - what's broken, what's changing in the market, what happens if we don't
- Ask for feedback and let them vent

Watch for my most likely mistake, which is jumping to direction and guidance (telling them what to do) when they're still in stage one and need context first. Call it out when I do it.

Start with their first line.

Tip: Run this twice. The second run is always noticeably better, and that's the whole argument for rehearsing before the real conversation.

Want better results? Add this context

The prompts work on their own, but they get sharper if you paste some background in with Step 1. Useful things to add:

How big your team is and whether you lead it. How this change was announced and by whom. What happened the last time your organization rolled out something like this. Whether there's a deadline and whether it's real. Anything you've already been told about the "why" that you found unconvincing, and why it didn't land.

Want to run this with your team?

Adapting to Change is a fully interactive workshop built around the changes your people are actually living through, not case studies about a fictional company. Participants map themselves and their team onto the curve in the room and leave with a specific coaching move for a specific person.

See the workshop

Built by Dave Collins at Oak & Reeds Interactive Training. We use improv and adult learning to build leadership skills that survive contact with a real Tuesday.